Where will the next 100 million jobs be created?
By 2030, more than 100 million new jobs are expected to be created worldwide—almost 20 million per year. With around 75 million, most of these will come from Africa, driven by massive population growth and economic growth. In aging Europe, on the other hand, employment will fall by 7 million if unemployment rates remain stable.
After Africa, Asia will create the most jobs: we project that the number will increase by a net 21 million by 2030, with South America adding 9 million and North America 4 million. Oceania will see only slight growth, with an increase of 0.4 million.
According to our estimates, most jobs in recent years have been created in countries with large populations: India, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan. We estimate that India has created a good 100 million jobs. Between 19 and 28 million jobs have been created in each of the other four countries. The top 10 is rounded off by countries that also have large populations: Nigeria, Mexico, the Philippines, the USA, and Brazil. Five of the top 10 were in Asia, two in Africa, and two in North America.
In percentage terms, Ethiopia is creating jobs at the fastest rate, with an estimated 21.7 million jobs being created between 2015 and 2025. Nevertheless, out of a labor force of over 65 million, a third are either unemployed or still living below the poverty line of $2.15 per day. Here, as in other countries with immense population growth, existing employers are not enough to close the gap. Many of the jobs are created dynamically out of the need to earn an income.
Highlights 2025
The employment gap
The world is missing over 350 million jobs
Since 2000, more than half a billion jobs have been created in the Global South. Nevertheless, there is still a global shortage of over 350 million jobs, but this figure is set to decline sharply almost everywhere in the future. Looking ahead, it is important to create jobs that not only serve as a step out of absolute poverty, but also provide a good livelihood for employees and their families.
2 min
Policy recommendations
What can Germany learn?
Job growth is the best way out of poverty and should be a key focus of German development cooperation. To achieve this, national governments must also prioritize jobs and thus economic development and entrepreneurship. Those that do so can become particularly rewarding partner countries.
2 min
Success Stories
What has Latin America and Asia done right?
In recent decades, countries in Asia and Latin America in particular have succeeded in massively reducing their employment gaps. This success was not down to chance, but rather to institutional conditions and a number of key growth drivers.
3 min
Focus on impact
Which countries can make the biggest jumps with support?
Development aid often focuses on the biggest problems, and rightly so. The Global Jobs Index reveals the greatest opportunities: Which countries have managed to significantly close the employment gap, and which ones could create the most jobs in the future with a little support? A look at the index reveals both familiar candidates and some surprises.
3 min